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In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. The matters that way on their minds are real. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. So, where are the bellwether counties? To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Their hopes are real. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Republicans have paid some attention. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. In communities . Trump gave them hope. . The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Ron Elving . It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. 12. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Twitter Twitter It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Until this year. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". But it's also not unprecedented. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. These are the bellwether counties. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Yes, another Hillsborough! But that's no longer the case. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). 3. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation.